Bitcoin Faces Critical Support Test: Potential Drop to $75K if $83K Fails
Bitcoin’s recent recovery has stalled, with key resistance levels and bearish indicators suggesting a possible downturn. Analysts warn of a potential drop to $75K if critical support at $83K is breached, while some predict a deeper capitulation zone around $65K.
Bitcoin at Risk of Dropping to $75K if $83K Support Breaks
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery rally has stalled, raising the risk of a bearish shift. The $86,000 mark has emerged as a resistance zone, with bulls failing to keep gains above that level. The 50, 100- and 200-hour SMAs indicate a bearish alignment, with a potential bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-hour SMAs on the horizon.
Bitcoin’s True Capitulation Zone Predicted at $65K
On-chain analyst James Check suggests that the true bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) may not be in place until after a capitulation event, which could see the price decline to the $65,000 area. This price level is considered the ’true market mean’ or the average cost basis for active investors. If BTC reaches this point, even long-term holders, including those who have held for five years, could face unrealized losses. Interestingly, this price aligns with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500.
Bitcoin Miners With HPC Exposure Underperformed in Early April
In the first two weeks of April, the performance of bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks was mixed. Pure play operators outperformed those with exposure to high-performance computing (HPC). Only MARA Holdings (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK) outperformed BTC during the period, while miners with HPC exposure, such as Bitdeer (BTDR), TeraWulf (WULF), IREN (IREN), and Riot Platforms (RIOT), underperformed. March was a good month for U.S.-listed miners, with increased capacity and token mining, but April’s first two weeks were not as positive. Network hashrate growth outpaced U.S. operator expansion, and the average BTC price declined.
Bitcoin Leads a Fundamental Shift in the Crypto Market
The first quarter of 2025 was a reality check for digital assets. While the year began with optimism fueled by the election of a pro-crypto U.S. president and expectations of a friendlier regulatory environment, macroeconomic challenges quickly came to dominate the narrative. Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high of $109,356 before ending the quarter down 11.6%, its second-largest quarterly decline since Q2 2022. Altcoins fared worse, with indices more heavily weighted toward smaller-cap tokens such as the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) declining by 55.2% and 46.4%, respectively.
CoinDesk Announces Eric Trump as Headline Speaker at Consensus 2025
Eric Trump, U.S. President Donald Trump’s second son, is set to appear at this year’s Consensus conference to discuss his vision to reshape bitcoin mining in the United States. Trump will talk about American Bitcoin, a new venture formed with Hut 8 where he serves as Chief Strategy Officer. Launched on March 31, American Bitcoin aims to become the world’s largest pure-play Bitcoin miner, targeting over 50 EH/s of mining capacity.
Bitcoin Rally Short-Circuited as Fed Chair Powell Raises Stagflation Fear
A modest bitcoin rally quickly reversed during U.S. afternoon trading hours on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on the effects of President Trump’s tariff regime. Powell stated that the level of tariff increases is significantly larger than anticipated, likely leading to higher inflation and slower growth - a scenario of stagflation. The price of bitcoin (BTC) fell about 2.5% shortly after Powell’s remarks.
